I'd like to share a theoretical scenario my friend Pat and I devised about a hypothetical move by the state of North Dakota to declare its self an independent nation during the Cold War. In this hypothetical scenario, the friendship between North Dakotans and the rest of the union must be neglected, just assume that North Dakota wants independence at any cost.
First fact: during the Cold War, North Dakota was prime real estate for the storage of nuclear weapons. This was due to North Dakota's low population density and the fact that it would only be a quick hop over the north pole to hit Russia. If North Dakota were to succeed with these weapon stores intact, it would be the third largest nuclear superpower on Earth
Picking a date. Let's say November 23, 1974. The year I picked was mostly arbitrary, but I did pick late November for a good reason. It's going to start getting cold in late November. The North Dakotan People's Army (NDPA) is going to be much more prepared to fight in this environment than the US Army. We're talking about a small population to subjugate here. If things did come down to a ground battle, it would have to end one way or another by spring, but in the next paragraph I will address why this is a moot point anyway.
The US at this point is already engaged in the Cold War with Russia. The North Dakotan revolution would immediately result in a second mutually assured destruction scenario with ND. I'll refer to it as the Really Cold War.
Now on November 23, 1974, the Governor of North Dakota declares independence. President Ford will have a couple of options on the table.
1) Let the state go. If he were to do this, he would have to live with the stigma of being the first president in American history to lose a state. (Of course Lincoln lost a few, but he got them back.) Given that this is only a couple of months into his presidency, which is already marred by his predecessor, he will not like this option, but it could be the lesser of two evils.
2) Ground War. Go in, take out the government, put a new one in it's place. Of course, this is easier said than done. I mentioned in my introduction that it has to be assumed that the bond between North Dakotans and their neighbors is neglected. That said, if there is any state in the union where people would truly put themselves on the line for their fellow citizens, it is North Dakota. Also, you can't forget the NDPA's stockpile of nuclear armaments. A ground war will most likely cumulate in option 3.
3) Nuclear War. More specifically, a second mutually assured destruction scenario with the northland. One has to assume that if North Dakota were to declare independence, it would not be on a whim. The governor will not be calling the shots from Bismarck. Not from Fargo. Not even from Grand Forks. He's going to be in a bunker built 10 stories underground 70 miles east of nowhere. The US could easily get Bismarck, Mandan, Fargo, and Grand Forks; this would quickly clear off a good half of the population of the state, but it won't be enough. The governor will then press his own red button and there goes New York, DC, LA, Memphis, St. Louis, Seattle, Miami. Was it worth it, Mr Ford?
That's not the end of it, however It was pointed out to me that the US would have the capacity to simply carpet bomb the entire state. This would simultaneous get *everyone,* every bomb, and every hiding spot for the governor. However, as a consequence, the radiation put off would end farmland in North Dakota (duh...), Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, northern Missouri, and likely parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. And that's being conservative. In short, there would be no more food. The people of the US will suddenly find fighting the red plague a small priority compared to starving to death.
Every nuclear bomb fired at North Dakota will be known to the Soviets. They will keep a count and know that the United State's arsenal is smaller by a known amount, plus whatever was in ND at the time of the war.
Even if the "carpet bomb" method wasn't taken, there would still be radiation lost due to a smaller attack. The reason we won the war is because our economy was so good that we could take care of our home life and military development simultaneously. Any level of nuclear strike in ND would lose that farmland and have some consequence in other states.
I should hope that Ford's advisors would realize all of this quickly and realize that any attempt to heat up the Really Cold War in North Dakota would be intertwined with losing the Cold War with Russia. As rough as it would be, President Ford would have to deal with it and let ND go.
The postwar time period would be interesting in North Dakota, but the fact is that North Dakota has good combination of farmland and oil fields that has allowed it to be one of only two states to run a surplus during the rough economic times the last few years. I think the sale of agriculture and oil to the US, combined with the simple lifestyles of the citizenry, ND would do alright for itself.
That's all on this subject for now.
